iEmergent Announces 2015-2019 U.S. Mortgage Volume Forecast Update

posted on 08 Aug 2015 23:00 by swankyvagrant8044
DES MOINES, Iowa--()--iEmergent, a Des Moines, Iowa-based forecasting and advisory services

firm for the financial services, mortgage and real estate industries,

issued its most recent 2015 - 2019 U.S. Total Mortgage Volume Forecast

today. The firm projects that 2015 purchase mortgage lending activity

will rise modestly and the refinance range will continue to be weak and

volatile, although the size of the gain remains uncertain as interest

rate increases, global economic uncertainty and credit availability

still threaten to minimize the overall improvement in the housing

market. Highlights of the forecast include:

2014-2015 National Mortgage Opportunity

2014 Total Mortgage Originations

2015 Total Mortgage Originations

2014 Units

2014 Dollars


2015 Units

2015 Dollars


Purchase Originations

Owner-Occupied Purchase





Non Owner-Occupied Purchase





Total Purchase Originations





Refinance Originations (Range)











Total Originations (Range)











Source: iEmergent, 2015

The projected 2015 purchase dollar volume of $782.6 represents a 9.34%

increase from estimated purchase dollar volume for 2014, with the change

in purchase loan units hovering around 7.8%. A 10% increase in refinance

dollars is also expected, resulting in a range of $1.08 trillion to

$1.16 trillion for total expected U.S. mortgage volume in 2015.

Purchase lending will continue to dominate through 2015 and into 2016

with owner-occupied purchases representing 90% and non-owner-occupied

purchases comprising 10% of all purchase volume. The ebb and flow of

refinance activity will continue around low levels similar to those in

2014, as interest rates fluctuate. If the U.S. economy continues to see

improvements in the labor market and small gains in wages and income,

the size of the total available household pool that is willing, ready

and able to buy a home should start to increase demand for the first

time since 2008.

"Even though we are seeing some signs that housing is slowly recovering,

there are still many factors and forces at work that could make for a

very turbulent year. On one hand, home prices are slowly rising,

interest rates still remain low and job growth seems to be steady - all

of which bode well for housing," said Dennis Hedlund, founder of

iEmergent. "Yet, if even one of those factors is removed from the

equation, or credit availability remains tight despite new initiatives

to help first-time homebuyers or those with limited savings, housing

could easily sputter backwards and recovery would stall for a period

once again."

The anticipated growth in purchase lending varies from market to market,

with Florida, New Mexico and Maryland showing increases of more than 14%

in purchase dollar volume, and Montana, Iowa and North Dakota gaining

less than 3% from 2014 to 2015. Among metropolitan areas, three of the

top five markets for purchase dollar growth over the next 5 years are in

Florida: Palm Coast, Naples-Marco Island and Orlando. Housing

affordability, overall household demographics and market-specific

boom-to-bust volatility from 2005-2013 impact how individual markets

will change from 2014 forward.

"Even if the composite U.S. housing market looks like it's starting to

stabilize, there will be vast differences in how individual markets and

communities will behave across the country," said Hedlund. "Some

communities are already on a solid path to recovery while others will

still struggle to find a foothold in 2015."

About iEmergent

Founded in 2000, iEmergent provides mortgage

lending forecasts and analytics to the lending, housing and real estate

industries. The company offers an extensive variety of forecast and

market intelligence products, including Mortgage MarketSmart, a

visualization tool that helps lenders quantify how mortgage markets will

change. For more information about iEmergent, visit